OK, here I go!

I’m ready to take the plunge. I’m ready to push off into these bots— for real.  So, it’s time to ramp it up!  No more tests— only the real deal.

The market stinks!

Sure, I say I’m ready and I mean it too, but the market is not ready for me.  Without a definitive direction, the market is risky and volatile. So I wait…and I wait…while it takes its sweet time choosing its direction.  

While waiting is difficult, it is necessary. Who knows— the market could be a bear, or conversely, a bull in hiding. Perhaps it’s a supercycle, or maybe it will continue going sideways forever! I’m done playing the predictions game, and I just don’t care.  I mean, in my heart of hearts I want all my assets to eventually appreciate. But that growth doesn’t need to be now or even next year.  My goal is to survive no matter what, so I need to plan for everything.

An indecisive market poses many challenges. If I pick incorrectly, I stand to lose a lot in the short run. Because using small bags to BOT with is exceptionally tricky, I need to buy into these assets as low as I can. Likewise, I must also be certain the value won’t dip lower before it goes sideways or up.

BTC calls the shots

Either up or down is fine with me, but I need to watch the market. By that I mean I need to watch Bitcoin (BTC) because it calls the shots. 

BTC is the largest crypto asset with almost half of all the wealth concentrated in the Bitcoin market cap.  In fact, wherever BTC moves, the rest of the market usually follows.

If BTC goes up, Altcoins go up; when BTC goes down, altcoins follow.  This is because BTC is directly traded with nearly all other crypto assets.  A BTC move up against USDT means that all other assets that BTC trades against have their markets affected and those all trade with USDT…  Basically it’s a web of connective tissues whereby BTC is in the middle spreading or taking market cap.

Indeed, the BTC market movement has the power to affect a LOT.

BTC has been consolidating in a smaller and smaller channel for a while now, and I’m told by the traders that means we are due for an explosion of up or down movement soon.  I, of course, don’t know which way the market will move. Perhaps by the time this blog gets out, a decision will be known. 

Nonetheless, being a HODLer it doesn’t matter. Of course, going down is depressing, but there is an upside. Downward movement gives me a better buy-in for my BOT assets. Sure, it would be exciting if BTC were to explode upward.  One never knows for sure.

What have I done?

I have built nearly 60 simultaneously functioning bots, and I’m currently botting with about 50 unique cryptos.  Therefore,  at my last check, I was holding a balance in nearly 400 unique cryptos.

This spread has been very difficult to maintain, and I DO NOT RECOMMEND it for anyone.  This venture was me playing with house money in a research environment with a limited amount to invest. I’ve only ever used a small portion of my portfolio to test these bots up until now.

At this point, most altcoins are depressed way below my purchase price, and my current BOT payouts have been low in quantity but high in percentage.  So although I average between .5% and 2% per day per bot, the total assets in each bot are so low that the actual payout per day is in pennies.  I can’t live on that.

This result is based on two factors:  1.) I purchased such a small quantity of each asset, and 2.) each asset has been decimated as compared to USDT.  Therefore, my total perceived portfolio value has also depreciated during this down-turn.  It’s wicked depressing to look over what used to be, but I keep reminding myself not to capitulate. Ultimately, it’s my long-term HODL bags that I am playing with, so I need to keep in mind the thesis that inspired me to buy each of these assets and remember that I’m thinking LONG term for them, not to be bothered with the in-between.

Likewise, having 400 assets makes it nearly impossible to do the research on each one. Honestly, I don’t even know what some of them are.  I have, however, kept a closer eye on about 30 assets that particularly strike my interest. With those 30 or so de-risked bags, I am still WAY above my initial USD investments.

But it’s tough knowing something I put $100 into a couple of years ago is worth less than $5 now.  Most of these assets I used to bot with and generate new crypto.  Taking that new crypto into account, I can consider that I’ve lowered the cost of my bags or de-risked them some.

On a macro level, I pulled out more actual USD than I put into crypto already, so I’m up on the whole.  Still, each of the investments I made in these 400 or so assets are currently in varied arrays of nastiness.  However, there is a bright side— once I got into Cosmos airdrops, my wallet spread got far wider and the Cosmos assets appear to be keeping their value. 

The reality is that right now, the assets I own don’t seem to have the volume to generate a decent return on each bot. Basically, what I own and what I should own might be different.  To correct this issue I need to analyze the markets and buy into assets at really good prices and stop playing the guessing game. This complete change in my overall strategy should make choosing new assets more profitable. 

A fresh start

The warmer sunnier weather always seems to be a catalyst for my fresh start. So far the nice weather has led me to clean my office. As usual, clearing the physical clutter has generated a new mindset with a clear focus on my current situation and my next steps in this process.

Being a logic-based person, my brain tends to create complex decision trees.  These trees rarely take root, but what may help is developing strategy-based guide rails to keep my goals in focus, quell my fears, and MOST crucially maintain a proper and exacting visual measurement of my strides.

For my sanity, I must set milestones to mark my achievements. I must also make sure my vision drives my decisions so I’m not stressing over them.  As I take the first few steps of investing new capital into the market, I realize that I need overarching guidance on what I’m about to undertake—  a rule book, if you will.

Creating this rule book is easier said than done, so I’ve decided to start with some lists. As I push forward, I suspect there will be ongoing issues with this project I never realized I needed to address.

So, what did I do?

First thing, I borrowed a bit from my Personal Line of Credit for 8.5% and put up some of my BTC to borrow stable coins for 5%.  I now have new capital to put into the market, and I need to make more than 8.5% APY in order to just break even.  These are tall tasks going into a potential bear market.

Of course, this new investment introduces new challenges: What do I buy? How much do I buy?  And how do I get started?

To begin, I re-established my Gemini connection to my bank account.  It took about 3 minutes and I was able to push the new money from my Line of Credit via ACH into Gemini.  It was immediately credited to my Gemini account, and I was allowed to trade with it.  When you deposit cash into an exchange, they put holds on your assets for withdrawal as the settling time for banks is measured in days, not crypto milliseconds.  

Moving forward, I couldn’t resist—I bought more of the coins I knew and loved. About 8 limit orders into the process, I realized I was using the same old hunt and peck method.  I wasn’t being strategic at all, and I was falling back into the same habits that left me with a vast portfolio of really small bags.  I didn’t want to watch the depreciation of these new assets, so I went bargain hunting instead by setting really low limit orders.  Some of these orders were filled, and I canceled the others.  As a result, I retained some AMP, XTZ, and some BTC in the 39k range.

During this nearly 7 full-day hold, I thought I’d be a wise ass and pull in a decent trade or two.  I did a few BTC and ZEC trades and built a 5% gain compared to the US Dollar. And, of course, I didn’t sell because I thought I’d get a higher return if I waited…  Ugh…  I never learn!  In the 7 days that I was too chicken to sell, I watched my gain shrink to 1%.  By that time I was able to withdraw my assets, so I kept most of what I bought.

Where to put them?

With multiple exchange accounts, it’s often difficult to remember where things are and why they are there.  For example, many assets that trade on Kucoin don’t have a Kucoin bot listing, so they can’t be traded on the Kucoin internal bot system.  So, if I want to trade an asset on Kucoin that has no Kucoin bot listing, I need to use Bitsgap which is only connected to one of my Kucoin accounts.  This is just one of many scenarios of changing elements I have to navigate.

This is where I’m stuck.  This is where I hope my list of lists becomes valuable. In the next few weeks, I must focus on researching proper assets to purchase for botting. But equally as important, I must place those assets where they can be most productive in my accounts.

I first need to take stock of what I own and where it is, so that task is on the agenda for next week.  It’s hard to predict exactly what I’ll do at particular times since the market is so indecisive.  It could pick up tomorrow or wait a month. Nonetheless, my botting strategy is currently at the whim of the BTC price. So I guess I’ll wait, like everyone else, to see what it will do.